Methodology
Each market's score is 50 + 25 × Σ(w·z)/Σ(w) where z is the
cross-sectional z-score of each factor (clamped to ±2), computed over the full
58-market universe. Missing factors drop out and weights renormalize; markets
with fewer than 4 available factors are not scored. Sub-scores apply the same
formula within each factor group (momentum / macro / external).
Factor Weight Source · cadence Direction
Data cadence: property price indices are quarterly (BIS);
macro indicators are annual (World Bank); policy rates and real effective
exchange rates are monthly (BIS), with ADB monthly policy and World Bank
GEM annual REER fallbacks for Vietnam; FX is daily. Nothing on this page
is real-time — every value shows its own as-of period.
Notes & verified gaps: euro-area members share the ECB
policy rate (BIS series XM) — their own series ended with the euro.
For the credit-to-GDP gap, euro membership is not a reliable proxy:
Bulgaria and Croatia are EUR-currency but verified absent from BIS's
credit-gap dataset entirely (not even via the euro-area aggregate), so they
are shown as an honest gap rather than routed to XM. Where the
euro-area aggregate IS used for credit gap (Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania,
Latvia, Malta, Slovenia, Slovakia), note that credit conditions vary more
across members than the single ECB policy rate does — the aggregate is a
rougher proxy here than for policy rate. Vietnam has no BIS price, policy,
REER, or credit-gap series: ADB ARIC / SBV supplies its monthly policy
path and World Bank GEM its annual REER history. No comparable public
national property-index history was found (the latest located official
IMF/GSO report documents the development work), and no comparable public
credit gap exists, so those remain explicit gaps and the score is
partial . Singapore has no policy rate by design (the MAS targets
the exchange rate). Greece publishes no Eurostat HPI;
the UK's Eurostat HPI series was discontinued at 2020-Q3 — both shown as
explicit gaps, never approximated. Some display-only metrics can carry
long-lagged as-of dates for individual markets (e.g. Vietnam's remittances
figure is last reported for 2004) — the as-of badge on each metric, not a
freshness guarantee, is the signal to check.
Investment tiers
Each scored market gets a mechanical tier — BUY
WATCH
AVOID
NOT RATED — derived purely from the
score above and two risk overrides: a credit-to-GDP gap above +10 percentage
points (the BIS/Basel III reference for elevated credit-driven bubble risk)
or a REER more than 20% above its own multi-year average (historically rich
pricing) each downgrade the tier by one step; missing BIS price data does
the same. A market needs at least 4 of 11 factors to be rated at all.
Each market also gets a one-line plain-language summary, template-generated
from the same real score/threshold/flag values (never free text) — and,
when the score itself is the limiting factor (not a risk flag), a
"+N.N to BUY/WATCH" margin showing exactly how many points separate it
from the next tier.
This is a mechanical summary of the public data on this page — not
financial advice, not personalized, and blind to anything not shown here
(building quality, legal title, rental yield, local regulation, taxes).
Rejected sources (checked, failed honesty or coverage):
World Bank tourist arrivals (series ends 2019), lending/real interest rates
(null for major economies), OECD house prices (endpoint 404), IMF (API
retired), Numbeo (no free license), World Bank Ease of Doing Business
(discontinued 2021), "real estate value added" proxy (only a bundled
all-services indicator exists, with a multi-year lag), domestic credit to
private sector (redundant with the credit-to-GDP gap already used), Bank of
Thailand API (requires registration, not keyless). No score history is
shown because nothing is stored between runs — synthesizing it would
be fabrication.
Portal links: every condo/apartment search-link is
fetch-verified (status code and response-body content, to catch
bot-challenge pages disguised behind a 200 status) before being added —
never added from research alone. Coverage is necessarily partial: most
real-estate portals worldwide block automated verification, so many
markets have no listing link at all rather than a guessed one.
Scope: scores are country-level only: no free, keyless
city-granularity price index exists among verifiable public sources, so
city/listing-level analysis is deferred to the linked local portals.
No rent/yield factor is included (no freely licensed source).
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