Methodology
This is a relative market-conditions screen , not a property
valuation or return forecast. The formula is 50 + 25 × Σ(w·z)/Σ(w);
z-scores compare eligible observations across tracked markets and are clamped to ±2.
Scores can change when peers change, even if a market's own data does not.
A score requires at least 5 of 7 usable factors, 75% of planned weight, and
real house-price growth plus GDP. Missing, failed-refresh, undated, future and
outdated observations are excluded before normalization. Age limits are
550 days for quarterly inputs and 900 days for annual inputs, measured from
observation-period end. These allow publication lags; they are operational
completeness rules, not measured confidence probabilities.
Factor Weight Source · cadence Direction
Both scored price trends are inflation-adjusted. The nominal price history
remains visible but is not substituted when the real five-year trend is missing.
Credit gaps below zero receive no extra reward; current-account surpluses are
capped at zero in the scoring transform. Inflation, policy changes, REER and
directional FX moves remain contextual indicators, not automatic score rewards.
Screening signals, not investment instructions
FAVORABLE is at least 55;
WATCH is above 45 and below 55;
CAUTION is 45 or below.
Missing usable credit evidence, a euro-area aggregate instead of country-specific
credit data, or an eligible credit gap above +10 pp caps a favorable screen at WATCH.
These are heuristic bands, not backtested buy/sell thresholds. A large REER gap
no longer downgrades a market as if its historical average were fair value.
Valuation evidence
OECD housing indicators
add price-to-rent and price-to-income ratio indices where available. These are
national indices (2015=100), not absolute multiples or net rental yields.
Above 100 does not mean overvalued. Their annual changes describe prices relative
to rents or incomes, not future investment returns. Old observations remain
visible but are excluded from the current valuation assessment. Thailand and
Vietnam have no coverage in this source; we do not substitute another country.
Every purchase assessment remains unverified without local comparable completed
sales, rent after vacancy and ownership costs, supply and resale liquidity,
financing terms, taxes and legal eligibility. A favorable screen is a reason to
research further, not a recommendation to buy.
Interpretation: one decision-led summary is recomputed from
aggregated observations with transparent rules. No LLM, paid model or API key.
An open analysis checks every five minutes, respecting source caches and publication
schedules. This is not a live price feed: housing and credit are quarterly, macro
indicators annual, policy/REER generally monthly and FX daily.
Coverage: Vietnam's policy and REER use documented ADB and
World Bank fallbacks, but a comparable national housing-price history remains
missing, so it is not scored. Shared euro-area credit data is labeled as a proxy,
not country-specific evidence. Unsupported metrics remain explicit gaps.
Rejected sources (checked, failed honesty or coverage):
World Bank tourist arrivals (series ends 2019), lending/real interest rates
(null for major economies), IMF (API
retired), Numbeo (no free license), World Bank Ease of Doing Business
(discontinued 2021), "real estate value added" proxy (only a bundled
all-services indicator exists, with a multi-year lag), domestic credit to
private sector (redundant with the credit-to-GDP gap already used), Bank of
Thailand API (requires registration, not keyless). No score history is
shown because nothing is stored between runs — synthesizing it would
be fabrication.
Portal links: every condo/apartment search-link is
fetch-verified (status code and response-body content, to catch
bot-challenge pages disguised behind a 200 status) before being added —
never added from research alone. Coverage is necessarily partial: most
real-estate portals worldwide block automated verification, so many
markets have no listing link at all rather than a guessed one.
Scope: scores are country-level only: no free, keyless
city-granularity price index exists among verifiable public sources, so
city/listing-level analysis is deferred to the linked local portals.
No rent/yield factor is included (no freely licensed source).
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